Maharashtra Exit Polls Highlights: Will these elections be a MAHA-Bharat between MVA & Mahayuti?

The voting for the high-stakes electoral battleground Maharashtra concluded today, with over 9.7 crore voters deciding the fate of 4,136 candidates in fray for 288 seats.

The exit polls are likely to be released by 7 pm, post completion of voting in the state.

The stage was set for an intense two-way battle between two coalitions—the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), consisting of Uddhav Thackeray’s Sena (UBT), NCP (Sharad Pawar), and Congress, and the Maha Yuti Alliance, which brings together BJP, Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde), and NCP (Ajit Pawar).

The forthcoming results promise high drama as it pits Sena vs Sena, Pawar vs Pawar, and the ever-present battle of Congress vs BJP. The political landscape has dramatically shifted since the last assembly election in 2019, with splits and power shifts taking center stage.Catch all live updates for Exit polls of Maharashtra

The pre-poll campaigns for both camps were marred by controversies and even a murder. With Baba Siddique gunned down ahead of elections last month and Anil Deshmukh attacked in Nagpur, just two days before the voting, Maharashtra elections have taken centre stage in the nation’s political landscape.

In the latest, the cash-for-vote row, where BJP leader Vinod Tawde was allegedly distributing cash, has further elevated the battle in the state.

Sena vs Sena: Uddhav vs Shinde

At the heart of this political saga is the Shiv Sena, now deeply divided between two leaders. The faction led by Eknath Shinde, who staged a dramatic rebellion against Uddhav Thackeray in 2022, has now been officially recognised by the Election Commission as the “real” Shiv Sena. With the support of 37 out of the 54 Sena MLAs, Shinde’s defection reshaped the state’s politics and ultimately led him to the chief minister’s seat with the BJP’s backing, toppling the Uddhav-led Maha Vikas Aghadi government.In early 2023, the Election Commission awarded Shinde’s faction the iconic “bow and arrow” symbol, solidifying his claim as the true successor to Bal Thackeray’s legacy. The Uddhav-led faction, left without the party’s traditional name and symbol, has since been on a mission to reclaim its political identity.

Pawar vs Pawar: A family battle

Maharashtra’s other big family feud comes courtesy of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), once united under Sharad Pawar. However, in a stunning turn of events, Ajit Pawar, Sharad’s nephew, split the party in 2023, taking a majority of MLAs with him to form an alliance with the BJP. The Election Commission, recognising Ajit Pawar’s legislative majority, awarded him the party’s traditional “clock” symbol in February 2024.With 57 out of 81 NCP legislators rallying behind him, Ajit Pawar’s group has positioned itself as the big faction of NCP, leaving Sharad Pawar—a key figure in Maharashtra politics—with just 28 legislators in his camp.

BJP vs Congress: Haryana election boost

With its allies firmly in place, the BJP must’ve aimed to capitalise on the divisions within its rival parties.In 2019, the BJP won 105 seats in Maharashtra, while Congress secured 44. Now, with Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP on its side, the BJP is eyeing a repeat of its successes in other states, such as Haryana, where it outmaneuvered Congress’s populist “freebies” strategy. While Congress promised free electricity and expansive healthcare benefits, the BJP countered with targeted welfare schemes like Minimum Support Price (MSP) for farmers and direct financial aid to women.

The Lok Sabha Fallout

The state elections follow a surprising Lok Sabha outcome, where the BJP-led Maha Yuti Alliance (MYA) won just 17 of Maharashtra’s 48 seats, a stark contrast to its previous dominance. The BJP’s tally dropped to 9 seats from 23 five years earlier, while the Maha Vikas Aghadi swept 30 seats.The below-par performance at the Centre prompted senior BJP leader and Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis to offer to resign from his post. This was to concentrate on party activities in preparation for the assembly elections. However, after a party meeting where state BJP legislators passed a resolution expressing their confidence in him, Fadnavis announced that he would continue in his role.Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) posted an impressive 43% strike rate in the Lok Sabha elections, securing 9 out of 21 seats it contested. Shinde’s faction, in contrast, won only 7 out of 15 seats. The Congress and senior Pawar’s NCP won 13 and 8 seats, respectively.Uddhav’s success in Mumbai, where his faction won three out of four seats, has bolstered his claim to the political legacy of Bal Thackeray, despite losing the party’s name and symbol.