President Joe Biden has placed great importance on fostering international friendships, and in the coming weeks, his commitment to strengthening ties with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be prominently displayed. Both leaders are scheduled to attend the Group of Seven summit in Japan, followed by a gathering of Pacific island leaders in Papua New Guinea and a meeting of Indo-Pacific leaders in Australia. Moreover, Modi is set to embark on a state visit to Washington on June 22, indicating a shared desire to deepen their bonds.
However, as is often the case with geopolitical friendships, complexities arise between the world’s largest economy, the United States, and the most populous nation, India. The personal outreach between Biden and Modi is driven by strategic considerations as they respond to China’s economic ascent and growing global influence. While Biden upholds democratic ideals and openly opposes Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, Modi’s criticism of Russia has been lukewarm, and critics argue that he is undermining India’s democratic traditions.
Hence, the future of this alliance hinges on exercising patience. Kurt Tong, a former U.S. ambassador and current managing partner of The Asia Group, a consultancy firm, emphasizes the need for steady progress in defense relations and rapid expansion of business ties, with the pace of developments influenced by India’s actions.
Biden publicly referred to India’s response to the war in Ukraine as “shaky” last year. India abstained from voting on United Nations resolutions condemning Russia and refrained from joining the global coalition against Russia. Modi had a relatively warm relationship with Biden’s predecessor, Donald Trump, and has made efforts to establish a connection with Biden, who often emphasizes his Irish heritage even in meetings with foreign leaders. During Modi’s visit to Washington in September 2021, he brought documents relating to individuals with the last name “Biden” in India, prompting a lighthearted exchange between the two leaders about a possible familial connection.
During his visit to Canada in March, Biden stated that one of his strategic goals is to enhance relations with the rest of the world, as he sees America’s leverage against China and Russia lying in its alliances. He emphasized that the United States is actively expanding alliances while the opposition is not.
Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, a biographer of Modi, asserts that the Indian leader’s connection with Biden is not based on a personal bond and has its limitations. However, given the escalating tensions with China over Taiwan, the U.S. government’s ban on exporting advanced computer chips to China, and human rights issues, it is crucial for the U.S. to have India as an ally. Mukhopadhyay suggests that the extent to which India will participate in the U.S.-led alliance will ultimately be decided by Modi, but he predicts that Modi will not be swayed simply by frequent meetings with Biden.
Nirupama Rao, a retired diplomat who served as the Indian ambassador to the U.S., points out that India has its reasons for not joining the chorus of condemnation against Moscow.
“The country wants Russia to maintain some distance from China, and it worries that isolating Moscow would just push it closer to Beijing,” she said. Relations between India and China are strained, with the two sides embroiled in an intense three-year standoff involving thousands of soldiers stationed along their disputed border in the eastern Ladakh region.
Rao cautioned U.S. policymakers against interpreting India’s involvement in the Quad, a group comprising the U.S., Japan, Australia, and India, as an alliance. India is also a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which is dominated by Beijing and Moscow. It regularly participates in trilateral meetings with China and Russia, and it continues to be part of the BRICS forum, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.
She noted that India has successfully maintained a balancing act thus far, but whether it can sustain this approach in the future remains uncertain. With Beijing growing increasingly confrontational, there is a possibility that China may refuse to engage with India if New Delhi strengthens its security ties with Washington.
Both the U.S. and India have been placing emphasis on technology partnerships, particularly in defense, clean energy, and space. During Modi’s visit to the U.S. in June, the two leaders are expected to discuss shared challenges such as climate change and health security.
While Russia is India’s primary supplier of military equipment, India has been diversifying its defense purchases by reducing its reliance on Russian arms and procuring from the U.S., France, Germany, and other countries. The defense trade between the U.S. and India has experienced significant growth, reaching over $20 billion in 2020 from virtually zero in 2008.
According to the Census Bureau, the U.S. imported approximately $86 billion worth of goods from India last year. While this figure has been steadily increasing, there is still room for further growth since the U.S. imports more goods from Taiwan and Vietnam than it does from India. With a population of over 1.4 billion, India is around 14 times the size of Taiwan and Vietnam combined.
However, there are certain risks for Biden as he focuses more on Modi, as human rights advocates are wary of Modi’s track record. The freedom of the media in India has faced challenges since Modi assumed office in 2014. Modi’s governing Hindu nationalist party has been accused by political opponents of suppressing dissent and implementing divisive policies that discriminate against Muslims and other minorities.
Furthermore, Modi’s party suffered a political setback with the opposition Congress party winning control of the southern Karnataka state. This victory could potentially unite the fragmented opposition ahead of the next general election, in which Modi will seek a third consecutive term as prime minister.
Nevertheless, for Biden, establishing a personal rapport with Modi behind the scenes may be crucial for overcoming any differences between them. Lisa Curtis, director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, believes that the investment in this relationship is worthwhile. She suggests that there are numerous private conversations that President Biden can have with Prime Minister Modi, which could have a positive impact on U.S.-India relations.
Source: AP NEWS
