Maharashtra polls to test electoral arithmetic, chemistry among allies post-Sena, NCP splits

Mumbai, With half a dozen key players post splits in the Shiv Sena and NCP, a fragmented polity, Maratha quota stir and a spirited opposition, Maharashtra will see a riveting contest in the assembly polls amid dramatic changes since the last elections. Elections to the 288-member assembly, the second largest after Uttar Pradesh (403), will be held on November 20 in a single phase and counting of votes will be on November 23, the Election Commission announced on Tuesday.

The Nanded Lok Sabha bypoll, necessitated due to the death of Congress MP Vasant Chavan, will also be held on November 20. The Mahayuti government led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde is banking on its flagship scheme, Ladki Bahin Yojana, under which poor women get a monthly stipend of Rs 1,500, to sway voters after the ruling bloc’s poor show in the Lok Sabha polls.

The Rs 46,000-crore a year welfare scheme is being widely seen as a “game changer” for the ruling bloc which comprises the BJP, Shinde’s Shiv Sena and the NCP led by Deputy CM Ajit Pawar, who joined the government just over a year ago after parting ways with his uncle Sharad Pawar. The government’s target is to cover 2.5 crore beneficiaries under the scheme. There are about 4.5 crore women voters in Maharashtra.

The Mahayuti (grand alliance) is in a direct fight with the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in a state where splits within major parties and realignments in the last five years have led to tectonic shift in political dynamics. The MVA consists of the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) faction led by veteran politician Sharad Pawar. Both the MVA and the Mahayuti are yet to announce their seat-sharing deals. The ensuing assembly polls, the first since the splits in the Shiv Sena in 2022 and the NCP a year later, will be a test of strength for the two major alliances and will also indicate the ability of their individual constituents to transfer votes to each other.

Even though the Lok Sabha elections saw the ruling alliance (which won 17 of 48 seats) suffering a jolt and the opposition MVA (30 seats) performing well, the assembly polls are going to be a different political ball game as state and local-level issues will dominate campaigning. Maharashtra’s political climate has never been more fragmented, with six main parties vying for influence: BJP, Shiv Sena, NCP, Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and NCP (SP).

This fragmentation is a product of recent political upheavals, including the collapse of the MVA government and the emergence of new political factions. The last five years have been unprecedented in Maharashtra politics — collapse of a pre-poll alliance, three regimes, including a three-day government, splits in two major parties with the Election Commission recognizing the breakaway groups as “real”.

The murder of former state minister and NCP leader Baba Siddique on Dussehra (October 12) raised concerns about law and order and came as an embarrassment for the Mahayuti government ahead of the polls. The opposition was quick to target the government, especially Home Minister Devendra Fadnavis, over the killing and highlight issues of public safety and governance. In the last fortnight, the Shinde government has taken a staggering 1,500 decisions, including around 160 in state cabinet meetings. These include the toll waiver for light motor vehicles at all five entry points into Mumbai. Despite reports that Ajit Pawar may walk out of the ruling alliance, he has stayed put. Maharashtra saw a change in government mid-way in June 2022 when the MVA government led by Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray collapsed following a rebellion in his party Shiv Sena. Shinde then succeeded Thackeray as CM with BJP support. The 2019 assembly polls changed several dynamics. First, a pre-poll alliance between the Shiv Sena-BJP snapped over the issue of chief ministership. Later, Shiv Sena joined hands with its traditional rivals Congress and the NCP to form a government under Thackeray’s leadership. Congress leader Ratnakar Mahajan said the BJP is facing erosion in its voter base, while the grand old party has gained people’s trust by raising key issues like agrarian distress, unemployment and inflation. Mahajan asserted the Congress is not complacent after its encouraging Lok Sabha poll show — the party won 13 seats in Maharashtra — and it continues to highlight pro-people issues. He said the collapse of a Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj statue in Sindhudurg district, poor law and order situation, Maratha quota and agrarian distress were some of the issues the opposition is highlighting. The Maratha quota demand, an issue which hurt the Mahayuti in the Lok Sabha polls, continues to resonate with a significant voter base, according to analysts. In 2019, the BJP bagged 105 seats, emerging as the single largest party, while its then-ally Shiv Sena won 56. The Congress and its ally NCP contested 125 seats each and won 44 and 54, respectively.