Madhya Pradesh Exit Polls: Two predict huge win for BJP, others show tight race

Exit polls on Thursday have predicted a big win for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Madhya Pradesh in the 2023 assembly election.The News24-Today’s Chanakya as well as India Today-My Axis exit polls have predicted a clear majority for the BJP in the state. According to today’s Chanakya survey, the BJP is seen getting a huge 151 seats, while Congress is expected to get 74 seats. The India Today-My Axis poll is also expecting a saffron wave with 140–162 seats for the BJP in MP, while the Congress is seen getting 68–90 seats.

Exit polls conducted by Jan Ki Baat have, however, predicted a neck-to-neck fight between the BJP and Congress. According to the Jan Ki Baat survey, the BJP would win 102-125 seats and the Congress would get 100-123 seats. The majority in the 230-seat Madhya Pradesh assembly is 116.

Dainik Bhaskar’s exit poll survey is expecting a majority for Congress (105–120 seats). The BJP, the poll expects, may get about 95 to 115 seats in the 230th assembly.

The Republic TV-Matrize is expecting 118–130 seats for the BJP and 97–107 seats for Congress.

Voting for the 230-member Madhya Pradesh assembly took place in a single phase on November 17, with a 77.15 percent voter turnout. The counting of votes is scheduled for December 3.

An exit poll is a survey that is conducted immediately after people have voted for their respective candidates. The tool helps in assessing the support for political parties and their candidates. The highly anticipated exit polls may provide an indicator of which way the state is moving. However, on several occasions, the exit poll predictions have proved wrong, with the most famous being the 2004 Lok Sabha Elections and the 2017 UP Elections.

The incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party and the opposition Congress are locked in a direct fight in the state.In 2018, Congress registered a huge victory. However, Jyotiraditya Scindia’s defection to BJP led to the fall of the Kamal Nath-led Congress government and the return of Shivraj Singh Chouhan as the Chief Minister for the fourth time.